Move to Higher Ground

Okay, so doomsday scenario numero uno:

Bangladesh’s population is approximately 89% Muslim. India, which borders Bangladesh is 80% Hindu. As you may already know, Hindus and Muslims do not have the friendliest of histories. Assuming sea level continues to rise as quickly as it has been, Bangladesh is going to be pretty much underwater at a certain point. The Bengali people will ultimately cross the Indo-Bengali border to seek refuge. Recall, India has an extremely dense population as does Bangladesh and their two cultures have not always gotten along. The possibility of wave of immigrants crossing the border and the already tenuous relationship between the two countries could spark a war.

Bangladesh is already besieged annually by river flooding during the monsoon season. As I explained in previous posts, the Bangladesh’s most important urban areas are sitting right next to these volatile river zones. On top of that, Bangladesh is not a stranger to the effects of Tsunamis. The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami did touch Bangladesh. However, the casualty rate was extraordinarily low- two children were killed when their boat capsized in the surge caused by the tsunami. I had thought a tsunami with an epicenter so close to Bangladesh would cause far more damage. I examined the part of the bay touching Bangladesh more closely and I watched a swell model of the tsunami several times. This was when I realized that even though the epicenter was very close to Bangladesh, it is enclaved far enough back and in between the Indian continent and Myanmar that the wave slammed into Myanmar and India while what was left of that waved squeezed between and focused its energy on the coasts it had already hit. It is hard to describe accurately so I am including the link to the swell model I looked at. I am also including a basic map so that the reader can see Bangladesh’s position further back from the more damaging part of the tsunami.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami#mediaviewer/File:2004_Indonesia_Tsunami_Complete.gif

Interestingly, it was the occurrence of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami which sparked the world’s interest in building up a tsunami warning system. I myself have benefited from this system, although I was already far at sea. Basically it is like an amber alert over radio channels which are triggered by satellite data and seismometers. Much of the information gathered by these satellites derives from a system of buoys at sea. The idea behind a tsunami warning is to get people to evacuate endangered areas. However, as with many natural disasters, people are often unwilling to leave the comforting confines of home even if that means they will likely die. I found and read an interesting article detailing the success rate of tsunami warnings in Bangladesh which categorized groups of evacuees by demographics. It charts the reasons why people ignored the warning and how many responded. It also charts how evacuees heard or saw the warning which is excellent data to have because if a tactic was more visible or audible, those issuing the warning will hopefully use that more often than the warning which went un-heeded. It eventually presents data regarding the shelter experience of those who made it to the shelters. All in all, it seems that the system is in place and could provide really high rates of survival and success if people would only heed the warnings.

Let’s revisit the end of the world due to natural causes. If Bangladesh were to experience more serious effects of a large tsunami which of course would not be unexpected due to the seismicity of Bangladesh and its surrounding areas. India would probably get hit as well due its proximity and the length of its coasts (larger target/more surface area to be affected). The big question remains: what happens to the people who get displaced?- not including the people killed initially by disease, starvation or physical contact with the tsunami. Everyone near the coast will either be killed or forced to move north into areas such as Dhaka (which may already be suffering from seismic damage or flooding in the river valleys) or the west/east into the surrounding Indian Territory. Keep in mind India will already be negatively effect on its own coasts. Factor in the issues over water, border crossing control and cultural tensions and I think we have a very volatile and dangerous situation.

http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/07/bangladesh-sea-level-rise/

http://research.brac.net/reports/An_assessment_of_Tsunami.pdf

Some creative assistance from Dr. Peter DeCelles