Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Cyclones



Cyclones: Finally a natural disaster which Bangladesh is not only familiar with but also somewhat PREPARED FOR. In case you missed the last episodes, Bangladesh should not be on your top ten places to live list. It turns out that Bangladesh does not have any of its own satellites and it relies on the NOAA and NASA satellites which send data remotely to the Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization, which is part of the Ministry of Defense. Apparently SPARRSO has a detailed “storm prevention” strategy (I think this is simply a poor choice of semantics on their part but it makes for rather amusing brain fodder to imagine a group of wizards at the ministry of defense combining their power to stave off the forces of nature). All joking aside, they have a volunteer force of approximately 32,000 people who are trained to warn and evacuate citizens especially in lower coastal areas and a network of 2,500 cyclone shelters. Petenga and Chittagong have built sturdy concrete levees to protect that part of the coast. After reading about how cyclones affect Bangladesh, I can see why they do not spend much time or money (comparatively) on earthquake or even subsidence mitigation. The Bhola Cyclone in 1970 killed 500,000 people (and that statistic is likely to be conservative). Over one million cattle were killed, 20,000 fishing vessels, 400,000 houses and 3,500 educational institutions were also destroyed. The wind during the Bhola Cyclone reached a maximum of 222km/hr and the maximum sure was over 10 meters. Bangladesh suffers primarily from tropical cyclones. They can last up to 24hrs and they produce  a huge amount of heart and moisture. They knock out power and contaminate what few potable water supplies Bangladesh has. In a country as heavily populated as Bangladesh, a power blackout could be devastating in itself as it would put hospital equipment out of commission and probably slow down the warning and guiding systems necessary to reach as many people as possible in a disaster.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bangladesh_tropical_cyclones
In April of 1991 another massive cyclone hit the coast of Bangladesh. It is now known as the Bangladesh Cyclone. It killed approximately 15,000 people which is a lower death toll than the one recorded in the Bhola Cyclone but I believe this was due to the country’s mitigation techniques having improved since the 70’s. Still, many died because they refused to evacuate, believe the intensity of the storm to be less than forecasted. The Max wind speed was 260km/hr which was measured for a minute at a time. This is the timing scale Bangladesh uses to measure wind speed as opposed to being measured over a 3 minute period which is what most countries use.  What is surprising about cyclone death tolls in the area are the number of people who die from drowning. Most of the deaths in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991 were drowning victims. This boggles my mind because I can see disease and water contamination as well as insufficient shelter being the cause of so many deaths but for some reason it is too surreal for me to comprehend. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Bangladesh_cyclone The initial dome of water which makes landfall is called the storm surge and it is caused by a combination of the hurricane’s winds and ocean surface which form not so much a tidal wave as a mountain of water to rise and then collapse on shore.  90% of the deaths in cyclone in Bangladesh are caused by the storm surge. The storm surges in Bangladesh are particularly deadly because the water nearest the coast is relatively shallow which means the surge does not have the depth or breadth of ocean space to disperse and loose energy. These surges can travel inland as far as 25miles and there is no method of prevention so the only mitigation option is to evacuate to a higher elevation.
Interestingly, although Bangladesh does utilize the hurricane rating system with the intensity scale of 1-5, it also rates its tropical storms on a scale of 10 to measure destruction.
Along with the initial storm surge there is of course torrential rainfall during a hurricane and this rain causes flooding and landslides which also claim property and lives.
In 2008 Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Mayanmar, Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka with winds reaching 215 km/hr (on the one minute time scale mentioned above). The total death toll was approximately 138,000 people. Only 3,500 of those were in Bangladesh. It was one of the most destructive cyclones in the history of the area, causing approximately 10 billion dollars in damage throughout all 4 countries. Yet, it seems as though Bangladesh is doing quite well for itself in regards to the road to Cyclone disaster prevention.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Subsid....en..c...e In Ba...n..gla...d...e...sh



As Bangladesh is built in the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltaic region it is naturally prone to the effects of subsidence. It experiences flooding and is in a seismically active area which means that given the right conditions the sediment of the delta to liquefy and fall, especially because the sediment would be extremely saturated during the monsoon season. The delta is in fact subsiding in some areas at about 2.2 cm per year and potentially at the same or faster rate in other areas. This is due to the isostatic adjustment of the underlying crust which is driven by the rise of the Himalayas. Isostasis is essentially how the lithosphere floats on top of the asthenosphere. Essentially, as the Himalayas are pushed further up in elevation by the Indian subcontinent subducting under the Asian continent, they erode (through various processes) and a bunch of that eroded material makes its way (usually via flooding) to the deltaic basin in Bangladesh. Over time that sediment accumulates at a faster rate than it washes out and as the weight of the sediment increases, the continent it is deposited upon will get pushed down a little. When the sediment gets washed away (which is does periodically) the continent sort of floats back up- this is called rebound.  Dewatering is another big contributor to the subsidence of the delta. As far as  I can tell from what I have read Bangladesh has recently gotten involved in some forms of coal mining which requires that the miners suck water from the water table in order to place mining equipment beneath the surface. This is basically how dewatering works. It is supposed make a sort of temporary  window for the equipment to be installed or for data to be collected but as would be expected, dewatering definitely has some permeant effects on the water table and on the layers of earth which are dried up in the process. As we all know, dried up sediment will fall without its regular amount of moisture to keep it up. Another contributor to subsidence is the practice of drawing up groundwater for drinking purposes. Bangladesh is facing a serious clean water problem. In the past drawing water up from wells has exposed people to arsenic poisoning but it is still cleaner than the water drawn from surface supplies, such as the rivers. Dhaka especially has been facing more and health issues caused by contaminated water sources. As sea level rises the soil in Bangladesh will become more saline as will the coastal bodies of water and eventually the delta and other areas further north. The more brackish the water become the less drinkable it will become and as the soil accrues more salt, it will become less fertile and the water table will become brackish as well, leaving Bangladesh fewer options for potable water. All of this would be caused by subsidence and the fact of the matter is that Bangladesh does not have either the infrastructure or the mitigation plan necessary to avoid the catastrophic results.


Friday, April 10, 2015

Mass Wasting



So, thoughts on mass wasting in Bangladesh:
Bangladesh, as already stated, is located in a delta and situated at the base of a valley. This valley was actually formed by mass wasting caused by landslides in the Himalayan range. Bangladesh is accruing sediment as it washes down from the surrounding high elevations and it is thereby gaining land mass but it is simultaneously losing sediment as the river dumps it into the bay (as active deltas are wont to do).  It receives heavy rainfall seasonally which means that much of the region for a percentage of the year is saturated. The areas surround Bangladesh suffer from landslides due to mass wasting especially those countries such as Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan and India- all of which are located near large mountain ranges and all of which also experience seasonal flooding. The few articles I was able to scrounge up regarding Bangladesh stated that not enough data has been collected to engage in a serious scientific debate of how large a role mass wasting plays in the country’s overall geological state. However, there are papers and articles published on the subject, they usually squeeze Bangladesh in an afterthought sort of fashion.  So I went back to the maps of Bangladesh to examine the elevation of areas which received the heaviest rainfall. The steepest of the river banks are the Chittagong and Padma. It is important to recall that many areas of Bangladesh are also severely arid (in fact tornadoes are another one of the many natural disasters Bangladesh is at risk of). I think that if the Chittagong Hills were hit with enough rain to get saturated but not enough to wash all the plant life holding the soil together away that those hills could continue to hold the moisture until the ground became to saturated and heavy to resist the pull of gravity- thus some form of mass-wasting. I do not think the landslides caused by mass wasting in Bangladesh would  cause the same amount or even categorization of damage as I does in the surrounding countries (Nepal suffers deadly mass wasting landslides during every monsoon season). I think if Bangladesh did sustain the same kind of damage from mass wasting, the data would be obvious. However, perhaps the monsoons wash away the soil to the alluvial plain before it can become saturated enough to trigger mass wasting in any other form than your garden variety torrential flooding.
The plan that Bangladesh has mapped out for mitigating calamitous mass wasting is similar to that which they drew up for the rest of their natural disasters. They will hopefully be able to communicate which areas should evacuate and what, if anything can be done. There are satellites in place to catch warning signs and evidence of mass wasting as it occurs over time in Bangladesh and hopefully that information will reach the people fast enough for them to move out of the way of a mass wasting event.
This is one of my favorite aspects of Bangladesh in regards to natural disaster/ catastrophe: Bangladesh is at high risk of all manner of natural disasters and their infrastructure as it stands will surely be unable to withstand a disaster. It seems to be on the brink of all kinds of natural disasters but it always either just misses the worst of the occurrence as with the 2004 tsunami or it is as if the earth just keeps putting off its doomsday as with the potential seismic activity and mass wasting.